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Lô de cờ bạc:中新网评:美国债台高筑 寅吃卯粮或祸及全球

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  中新网北京10月13日电(蒋鲤)美国财政部最新数据显示,美国国债总额近日首次超过31万亿美元,远超2021年23万亿美元的GDP总产值,进一步逼近31.4万亿美元的法定债务上限。

  据美媒报道,仅过去八个月,美国就新增了1万亿美元的债务。美国政府债务“野蛮生长”引发全球担忧,若情况进一步恶化,另一场金融危机或将登场。

  美国彼得•彼得森基金会统计显示,31万亿美元债务若分摊到美国民众身上,则相当于每个家庭负债23.6万美元,每人负债9.3万美元。如果每个美国家庭每月贡献还款1000美元,则需要19年才能还清所有债务。

当地时间7月27日,美国联邦储备委员会宣布,将联邦基金利率目标区间上调75个基点到2.25%至2.5%的水平,这是美联储连续第二次加息75个基点。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的记者会上表示,虽然通胀数据仍然呈上升趋势,但是目前经济很可能处于数据尚未完全反映出货币政策收紧效应的时期,他认为加息和“缩表”实际上已产生了效果。 中新社记者 沙晗汀 摄

  随着美联储激进加息,联邦债务的利息成本也显著上升。根据该基金会估算,随着利率上涨,未来10年联邦政府在利息上的开支将增加1万亿美元,进一步推高美国债务。

  近年来,美国政府推出多轮大规模财政刺激计划,包括前总统特朗普政府约2.3万亿美元的一揽子支出法案。而拜登政府则大规模减税,并通过新冠救助法案、芯片法案和《通胀削减法》等一系列法案,带来了大量新增债务。屡创历史新高的国防预算开支,也加重了联邦政府的债务负担。

  美国债台高筑,而美国政府惯用提高债务上限的方式来缓解财政困境,政府借债支付利息,由此产生了更多利息和更多借贷,陷入了恶性循环。而美国两党频繁将债务上限问题作为博弈的筹码,降低了美国应对财政挑战的能力,引发投资者对美债违约的担忧。

  一旦美国债务违约,对美国自身而言,可能会面临主权信用评级被下调、美元的国际储备货币地位被削弱、潜在金融风险增多、经济复苏受到拖累等多重风险。不断攀升的巨额债务也将进一步限制美国在应对气候变化、下一次新冠疫情大流行,以及构建包容性的经济等方面采取行动的能力。

  而美债危机带来的不确定性将外溢到全球,增大全球在投资、贸易等多个领域的震荡和波动,影响全球经济复苏进程,甚至引发另一场国际金融危机。

  美国经济债务化已成常态,不断攀升的债务正在透支美国的未来,也会为全世界带来噩梦,美国政府应当开源节流,盲目提高债务上限绝不是长久之道。

By John Lee

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(ECNS) -- Data released by the U.S. Treasury Department shows that public debt in the country has surpassed $31 trillion for the first time ever, far beyond its gross domestic product in 2021 of $23 trillion, and is close to reaching the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.

According to the U.S. media Quartz, a trillion U.S. dollars of debt was added just in the last eight months. The barbaric growth of U.S. debt has caused global concern over another financial crisis.

The $31 trillion debt is equivalent to $236,000 per American household and $93,000 per person, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. If every U.S. household paid $1,000 per month toward covering the debt, it would take 19 years to pay down the sum.

The country's radical move to increase interest rates is accumulating more interest payments. According to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, higher rates could add an additional U.S. trillion dollars to what the federal government spends on interest payments this decade.

Stimulus packages have been adopted by the U.S. government in order to revive the economy. For example, former U.S. President Donald Trump signed into law a $2.3 trillion pandemic aid and spending package.

And the Biden administration’s American Rescue Plan, the Inflation Reduction Act, and CHIPS and Science Act have added a large amount of debt. A high defense budget has also increased the debt burden.

Raising the debt ceiling is often used by the country to cope with its fiscal predicament. However, the federal government is now trapped in a vicious circle in which it borrows money and pays interest, which causes more interest and more borrowing.

The two parties of the country are used to fighting over the debt ceiling issue, which has lowered the federal government’s ability to respond to financial challenges and triggered investors’ concern about the potential default of the U.S. debt.

If the U.S. defaults on its debt, the country will face multiple risks. For example, its credit rating will be lowered, the U.S. dollar’s position as the world's dominant reserve currency will be shaken, and there will be potentially more financial risks.

In addition, the rising debt will further limit the country to take actions in dealing with climate change, the next round of COVID-19, and building an inclusive economy.

Uncertainties caused by its debt crisis will spread to the rest of the world, bringing more instabilities to investment, trade and other fields, which will encumber the world’s economic recovery and may trigger another financial crisis.

A long-term large-scale deficit jeopardizes the country’s future as well as the world economy. The U.S. government should increase revenue and reduce expenditure. Frequently raising the debt ceiling is not a sustainable solution.

【编辑:管娜】
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